England is witnessing a concerning surge in type 2 diabetes diagnoses among young women in their 20s, according to experts at Imperial College London. This trend, which has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, is strongly tied to rising obesity levels, as revealed by an analysis of NHS data spanning from 2011 to 2024.
Type 2 diabetes is a serious condition that can lead to severe complications, including heart attacks and strokes. When it develops at a younger age, the disease tends to be more aggressive, increasing the risk of devastating health issues and shortening life expectancy, warns Diabetes UK.
Early Warning Signs
Early diagnosis is crucial to prevent long-term organ damage, the charity emphasizes. In many cases, type 2 diabetes can be put into remission through a healthy diet and maintaining a healthy weight, without relying on glucose-lowering medications. Researchers suggest that newer obesity treatments, such as GLP-1 injections and pills, could help when combined with dietary advice.
Approximately 90% of the six million people in the UK living with diabetes have type 2, rather than type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes. While older adults still account for the majority of new diagnoses, around 12,000 people under 30 are now living with type 2 diabetes, with women representing a larger share of these younger cases, according to NHS England estimates.
Common symptoms include persistent fatigue, increased urination, and constant thirst.
The Data Behind the Trend
Researchers at Imperial College London analyzed data from the English National Diabetes Audit to track changes over time. The figures reveal a slight decrease in type 2 diabetes among older adults, who still form the largest group of new cases. However, the disease is rising rapidly in people under 40, with the sharpest increases observed in women aged 20 to 29.
Simultaneously, body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis has been climbing more quickly among younger adults than in older age groups, pointing to a likely cause. Obesity rates in England have worsened since the pandemic, with nearly one in three people now affected, according to separate NHS data.
The largest increases in obesity have been seen in younger adults. Between 2019 and 2025, new obesity cases rose by 16% among those aged 20-29 and by nearly 20% among those aged 30-39, while rates declined in adults aged 60-79.
Broader Impact Beyond Ethnic Groups
Lead researcher Dr. Shivani Misra notes, “We think that the earlier onset of severe obesity in young people is increasing their type 2 diabetes risk in early life and pulling down their age at diagnosis. This is really worrying given the poor health outcomes from early-onset type 2 diabetes.”
While much of the discussion around rising diabetes rates in younger people has focused on ethnic minority groups, traditionally considered at higher risk, the new data suggests the trend extends beyond these communities. “We now see that incidence is also increasing in white populations too, showing that this public health challenge is broadening across the generations,” Dr. Misra adds.
Diabetes UK also emphasizes the need for better follow-up care for mothers diagnosed with gestational diabetes during pregnancy, as it increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes after childbirth. Some studies suggest a link between COVID-19 illness and increased type 2 diabetes risk, though this evidence remains inconclusive.
